The global economy continues to confront the challenges of inflation and low growth prospects. GDP growth has been stronger than expected so far in 2023, but is now moderating on the back of tighter financial conditions, weak trade growth and lower business and consumer confidence. Risks to the near-term outlook remain tilted to the downside and include heightened geopolitical tensions, for example due to the evolving conflict following Hamas’ terrorist attacks on Israel; and a larger-than-expected impact of monetary policy tightening. On the upside, growth could also be stronger if households spend more of the excess savings accumulated during the pandemic.....
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